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fangorithm

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MLB Player Projections

Monday, August 10, 2026
72 projections · 8 pitchers
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In-house daily hitter projections from fangorithm — an honest expected per-plate-appearance outcome vector (1B, 2B, 3B, HR, BB, HBP, K, out in play) shown as percentages, plus the expected volume for each hitter on the slate.

TOR vs BOS

Rogers Centre
PlayerTeamOppSlotStatusStart%xPA1B2B3BHRBBHBPKOIP
Nathan LukesTORBOS1Official100%4.6518.4%3.2%0.1%1.4%5.8%1.0%14.5%55.6%
Brett BatemanTORBOS2Official100%4.5513.4%3.7%0.2%1.7%9.6%0.9%23.8%46.9%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORBOS3Official100%4.4416.9%3.5%0.0%0.9%7.6%0.8%15.1%55.1%
George SpringerTORBOS4Official100%4.3313.5%2.5%0.3%2.0%9.6%0.6%20.1%51.5%
Jesus SanchezTORBOS5Official100%4.2214.4%4.5%0.1%2.1%5.2%1.5%24.5%47.7%
Andrés GiménezTORBOS6Official100%4.1114.6%3.7%0.2%1.3%3.4%1.8%22.0%53.0%
Charles McAdooTORBOS7Official100%4.0014.0%2.6%0.2%1.9%6.2%0.9%23.1%51.2%
Josh H. SmithTORBOS8Official100%3.9015.2%2.1%0.4%1.2%9.4%0.8%19.0%51.9%
Brandon ValenzuelaTORBOS9Official100%3.7914.0%2.4%0.1%2.2%8.7%0.4%28.6%43.7%
Nick SogardBOSTOR1Official100%4.659.4%3.3%0.5%1.3%13.7%0.5%20.0%51.4%
Ceddanne RafaelaBOSTOR2Official100%4.5512.1%4.0%0.2%2.4%4.9%1.2%19.8%55.4%
Wilyer AbreuBOSTOR3Official100%4.448.2%2.8%0.3%3.3%10.1%0.4%23.6%51.3%
Willson ContrerasBOSTOR4Official100%4.339.4%2.9%0.2%3.9%9.9%3.8%28.2%41.8%
Masataka YoshidaBOSTOR5Official100%4.2210.9%3.1%0.2%1.8%10.7%1.0%10.9%61.5%
Caleb DurbinBOSTOR6Official100%4.118.4%3.7%0.2%2.4%9.0%1.4%15.7%59.1%
Jarren DuranBOSTOR7Official100%4.007.4%1.6%0.4%3.5%6.3%0.7%30.5%49.5%
Anthony SeiglerBOSTOR8Official100%3.909.0%2.8%0.2%2.6%9.8%0.9%23.2%51.5%
Connor WongBOSTOR9Official100%3.798.0%4.4%0.1%1.5%9.4%1.9%26.9%48.0%

Probable Starters

PitcherTeamThrowsOppxBFxIP1B2B3BHRBBHBPKOIP
Jameson TaillonTORRBOS21.75.39.7%3.0%0.2%2.9%9.4%1.1%21.4%52.2%
Sonny GrayBOSRTOR22.85.514.0%3.2%0.1%1.7%7.2%1.0%22.2%50.6%

ATL vs NYM

Truist Park
PlayerTeamOppSlotStatusStart%xPA1B2B3BHRBBHBPKOIP
Drake BaldwinATLNYM1Official100%4.6516.6%1.1%0.1%7.0%9.9%1.9%24.5%38.9%
Ronald Acuña Jr.ATLNYM2Official100%4.5514.5%1.9%0.2%6.3%11.4%2.2%24.4%39.0%
Matt OlsonATLNYM3Official100%4.4411.6%3.4%0.1%9.7%9.7%0.7%28.8%36.0%
Michael Harris IIATLNYM4Official100%4.3317.2%2.9%0.3%7.0%3.6%0.6%24.4%44.0%
Ozzie AlbiesATLNYM5Official100%4.2213.9%1.8%0.1%5.3%8.1%1.0%21.7%48.0%
Mauricio DubónATLNYM6Official100%4.1117.8%2.6%0.6%3.5%6.5%0.6%17.5%50.8%
Austin RileyATLNYM7Official100%4.0012.5%2.2%0.2%5.3%6.6%2.6%35.4%35.3%
James JarvisATLNYM8Official100%3.9016.0%2.5%0.9%3.3%5.5%1.1%21.8%48.8%
Sean MurphyATLNYM9Official100%3.7913.3%2.0%0.3%3.8%6.2%1.2%36.0%37.2%
A.J. EwingNYMATL1Official100%4.6516.9%2.5%0.2%3.9%7.3%0.5%21.2%47.5%
Francisco LindorNYMATL2Official100%4.5513.1%1.5%1.4%6.1%7.6%0.9%18.0%51.3%
Bo BichetteNYMATL3Official100%4.4418.5%1.9%0.3%3.2%4.5%0.4%15.9%55.4%
Carson BengeNYMATL4Official100%4.3318.6%2.0%0.6%4.9%5.8%0.7%16.9%50.5%
Jared YoungNYMATL5Official100%4.2215.4%2.8%0.7%5.7%7.2%1.5%14.3%52.4%
Marcus SemienNYMATL6Official100%4.1113.7%1.4%0.2%6.3%5.6%0.3%18.6%53.8%
Brett BatyNYMATL7Official100%4.0015.4%1.8%0.3%4.1%6.5%0.6%22.1%49.1%
Jorge PolancoNYMATL8Official100%3.9011.4%2.5%0.1%4.0%6.0%0.4%20.9%54.7%
Francisco AlvarezNYMATL9Official100%3.7914.7%2.0%0.1%7.7%8.0%0.9%22.0%44.5%

Probable Starters

PitcherTeamThrowsOppxBFxIP1B2B3BHRBBHBPKOIP
Bryce ElderATLRNYM23.75.614.7%1.9%0.4%5.2%6.6%0.6%19.0%51.5%
Christian ScottNYMRATL20.44.614.2%2.5%0.3%5.4%7.9%1.5%25.9%42.3%

MIN vs BAL

Target Field
PlayerTeamOppSlotStatusStart%xPA1B2B3BHRBBHBPKOIP
Austin MartinMINBAL1Official100%4.6516.1%8.3%0.1%0.8%11.1%1.5%14.1%48.1%
Ryan JeffersMINBAL2Official100%4.5517.3%6.1%0.8%2.6%11.7%0.5%13.1%48.0%
Royce LewisMINBAL3Official100%4.4415.8%7.7%0.3%3.0%7.2%0.7%19.5%45.8%
Josh BellMINBAL4Official100%4.3317.6%7.4%0.3%2.3%5.5%0.4%17.7%48.7%
Luke KeaschallMINBAL5Official100%4.2219.7%5.2%0.3%1.0%7.8%1.2%14.6%50.2%
Brooks LeeMINBAL6Official100%4.1115.8%4.5%0.6%2.1%5.6%0.6%18.0%52.7%
Kaelen CulpepperMINBAL7Official100%4.0016.1%5.8%0.5%3.1%7.0%1.2%17.6%48.7%
Victor CaratiniMINBAL8Official100%3.9015.8%4.0%0.1%1.7%6.7%1.8%21.4%48.4%
Ryan KreidlerMINBAL9Official100%3.7916.2%6.5%1.0%1.7%6.8%0.6%15.7%51.6%
Gunnar HendersonBALMIN1Official100%4.6512.1%4.6%0.7%3.2%7.8%1.3%22.6%47.7%
Pete AlonsoBALMIN2Official100%4.5512.0%5.6%0.1%4.8%10.6%1.0%23.6%42.2%
Jackson HollidayBALMIN3Official100%4.4413.0%4.8%0.8%2.7%11.9%0.3%22.5%43.9%
Tyler O'NeillBALMIN4Official100%4.3311.6%4.7%0.2%3.0%8.8%1.0%27.6%43.2%
Dylan BeaversBALMIN5Official100%4.2213.2%8.3%0.2%1.4%9.1%0.8%22.3%44.7%
Leody TaverasBALMIN6Official100%4.1112.9%6.0%2.3%2.1%8.2%0.4%22.0%46.1%
Coby MayoBALMIN7Official100%4.0011.2%3.9%1.7%3.0%6.1%0.8%33.3%40.0%
Colton CowserBALMIN8Official100%3.9012.9%2.5%0.1%3.5%11.8%0.5%27.4%41.2%
Carlos NarvaezBALMIN9Official100%3.7911.5%3.6%0.2%1.6%6.4%1.6%32.5%42.5%

Probable Starters

PitcherTeamThrowsOppxBFxIP1B2B3BHRBBHBPKOIP
Dean KremerMINRBAL21.75.112.2%5.1%0.6%3.2%8.0%0.8%25.9%44.2%
Trevor RogersBALLMIN22.85.016.7%6.7%0.6%2.2%7.0%0.6%16.8%49.4%

STL vs PHI

Busch Stadium
PlayerTeamOppSlotStatusStart%xPA1B2B3BHRBBHBPKOIP
JJ WetherholtSTLPHI1Official100%4.6520.3%3.0%0.1%2.2%10.8%3.0%10.1%50.4%
Ivan HerreraSTLPHI2Official100%4.5519.6%4.6%0.3%1.8%8.2%5.1%11.9%48.6%
Alec BurlesonSTLPHI3Official100%4.4419.9%7.5%0.3%3.2%9.0%1.1%10.5%48.7%
Jordan WalkerSTLPHI4Official100%4.3321.9%5.8%0.1%3.3%6.6%0.9%16.6%44.9%
Nathan ChurchSTLPHI5Official100%4.2220.4%3.7%0.4%2.1%6.1%0.9%13.9%52.4%
Masyn WinnSTLPHI6Official100%4.1120.9%3.2%0.6%1.0%9.2%1.8%13.1%50.4%
Jose FerminSTLPHI7Official100%4.0018.9%4.8%0.1%1.6%7.5%0.8%9.6%56.7%
Jimmy CrooksSTLPHI8Official100%3.9016.6%4.7%0.2%2.6%7.2%1.9%20.4%46.5%
Cesar PrietoSTLPHI9Official100%3.7917.1%4.1%0.3%1.9%6.9%1.0%13.3%55.4%
Kyle SchwarberPHISTL1Official100%4.6513.3%3.1%0.2%5.1%15.2%0.9%29.0%33.3%
Bryson StottPHISTL2Official100%4.5516.5%6.9%1.3%1.6%9.5%0.4%12.9%50.9%
Bryce HarperPHISTL3Official100%4.4414.6%6.5%0.7%4.2%15.3%0.3%14.5%43.8%
Luis ArraezPHISTL4Official100%4.3323.4%6.2%1.2%0.9%6.1%0.6%3.2%58.4%
Brandon MarshPHISTL5Official100%4.2222.4%5.1%0.3%2.8%6.6%0.4%15.9%46.4%
Derek HillPHISTL6Official100%4.1119.4%2.6%0.1%3.1%8.0%1.0%25.0%40.9%
Justin CrawfordPHISTL7Official100%4.0021.6%5.7%0.8%0.7%6.0%0.6%14.2%50.4%
Edmundo SosaPHISTL8Official100%3.9017.0%4.5%0.4%2.0%4.1%1.4%15.6%55.1%
Garrett StubbsPHISTL9Official100%3.7918.7%3.5%0.3%1.5%6.4%2.1%15.1%52.4%

Probable Starters

PitcherTeamThrowsOppxBFxIP1B2B3BHRBBHBPKOIP
Hunter DobbinsSTLRPHI21.54.618.2%4.8%0.7%2.3%8.5%0.9%16.3%48.3%
Andrew PainterPHIRSTL21.44.519.5%4.7%0.2%2.3%8.6%1.5%12.5%50.5%